November 30, 2010

Gold Dinar in the Middle and High Inflation Deflation Threat ...

When the crisis hit Indonesia in 1998, when I was one of his victims. As directors of a public company, I have investments in shares and deposits. I Collect the deposit amount of toil for years trimmed down to just a quarter of its value in just a few months of the crisis. 

  
Investment in stocks even worse, because in addition to its value in the rupiah fall. IDR himself lived a quarter of the amount before the crisis. Punch repeatedly during this crisis will consume most of my investments are up since the beginning of his career. 
  
Alhamdulillah I am grateful to the help of Allah facilitated to understand the financial phenomenon around us, so that when the crisis is over ten years later (2008) - I do not need to be a victim again. 
  
Indeed it is not difficult to understand what is happening with money-based financial system of this paper, the data scattered in various reliable sources. The graph above example, I take and process data from Pacific Exchange Services and Kitco. 
  
What we can see from the chart above, really?. From the statistics available - the level of human science - stating that the U.S. dollar would fall - because the last ten years has dipped sharply. If likened to an aircraft with an altitude of 100% (January 2000), the current height is 32% lived alone. 
  
Other paper currency would not much different, much less amount that has a tendency worse than the U.S. Dollar. 
  
With what we measure this?, With 'real money' that has fixed purchasing power of gold or Dinar (called the gold dinar is also weighing 25.4 grams, levels of 22-carat).We can only know the purchasing power of a currency rise or fall if there is a standard for comparison of all time, one standard of comparison is that gold and Dinar. 
  
In the history of paper currency, it is only paper currency purchasing power increased significantly when there is a very severe depression. History of U.S. $ during the last century for example, only increase the purchasing power which means that when there was the great depression 1930's. In the era of relatively normal times, paper money steadily declining in value. 
  
So what kind of crash that we need to anticipate the future?. Analysts disagree on this. 
  
For those who estimate that the worldwide credit collapse will continue, then the deflation threat that needs to be aware. In a situation of deflation, liquidity is king. We could have been rich with real assets, liquidity if we are weak - then maybe we get caught up in real trouble. 
  
Anticipating deflation can be done by maintaining our liquidity, but if we keep with the liquidity of paper money - when that happens it's not deflation, but inflation - then we would be stuck at the next problem. 
  
When that happens is that inflation is too high, or a change from deflation to inflation stages are too fast - the liquidity of paper money that we can suddenly lose its value. 
  
So what's our solution?. Gold Dinar or answer. 
  
Dinars or gold is a real asset that is always easy to sell to cash in the period of deflation, though, and need not decrease the value / purchasing power in times of inflation out of control. 
  
The advantage of gold is not even recognized by practitioners of the investment world as Morgan Stanley released a statement two days ago CNBC: "Gold looks to be the investment of significant upside Provides That area under the inflation-rebound scenario and the relative resilience in the deflation scenario, gold Should be one of the best hedges for investors ". 
  
So ready for the next financial crash landing? prepare Dinar as a parachute and you float. Allaah knows best.

November 29, 2010

The Little Group Winning, Group Most of Regret

One day Umar ibn Khattab R.A. hear someone pray, "O Allah, make me belonged to a little". At that, Omar was surprised and asked, "Why do you pray so?" Friends of the man replied, "Because I heard Allah says," And very few of My servants are grateful ", so I begged for a bit I included it.


These little ones who are in the world today so months thereafter, marginalized and attacked all-out as happened in Gaza until last week. But instead of that little group is once again proved the truth of the word of God Almighty: ".... How many little ones who can beat a lot of classes with the permission of Allah. And Allah is with those who steadfastly persevere." (Surah 2: 249).

Two years ago I bought a book titled Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Today's Big Changes (Penguin Books, 2007). Interestingly in the book (p. 355) is in writing, among others, the power of Hamas which according to the author (Mark J. Penn) is categorized as a small force that will change the world. With the 'victory' Hamas last week - once again this proves that the world is not changing the class of people 'most' - the Little group that played a role.

Then the class of people 'most' how?, If not the bandwagon to discredit a little - at least that many classes can only watch the struggle of this small group.
Want to know the character class of people 'most' of this version of the Qur'an? (Not the version I know!); At least a minimum of 65 Paragraph I found the following:
 1) ... most people do not give thanks (2: 243)
2) ... and most of them are people who rebel (2: 110)
3) ... and in fact most people are those who rebel (5:50)
4) ... are most of you are real people who rebel (5:59)
5) ... Most of them blind and deaf (again) (5:71)
6) ... and most of them do not understand (5:103)
7) ... but most of them do not know (6:37)
8) ... but most of them do not know (6:111)
9) ... And if you obey most of the people in this earth, they will lead you astray from the Path of Allah (6:116)
10) ... And in fact most (of men) really want to mislead (others) with their own desires without knowledge (6:119)
11) ... In fact we found most of them people who are wicked (7:102)
12) ... but most of them do not know (7:131)
13) ... but most of them do not know (7:187)
14) ... but most of them do not know (8: 34)
15) ... And most of them are people who are wicked (did not keep appointment) (9:8)
16) ... but most of them do not know (it) (10:55)
17) ... but most of them do not appreciate (it) (10:60)
18) ... and actually most of the people unaware of the signs of our power (10:92)
19) ... but most people do not believe (11: 17)
20) ... but most people do not know (12:21)
21) ... but most of mankind is not grateful (12:38)
22) ... but most people do not know (12:40)
23) ... but most people do not know (12:60)
24) ... but most people do not believe (in Him) (13:1)
25) ... but most people do not know (16:38)
26) ... but most of them do not know (16:75)
27) ... and most of them are those who disbelieve people (16:83)
28) ... even most of them do not know (16:101)
29) ... but most people do not like except deny (Him) (17:89)
30) ... in fact most of them do not know who the right (21:24)
31) ... and most of them hate the truth (23:70)
32) ... then most people would not except to deny (delicious) (25:50)
33) ... and most of them do not believe (26: 8)
34) ... but most of them do not believe (26:67)
35) ... but most of them do not believe (26:103)
36) ... but most of them do not believe (26:121)
37) ... but most of them do not believe (26:139)
38) ... and most of them do not believe (26:158)
39) ... but most of them do not believe (26:174)
40) ... but most of them do not believe (26:190)
41) ... but most of them are people liars (26:223)
42) ... but most of them do not know (27:61)
43) ... but most of them are not grateful (27:73)
44) ... but most of them do not know (28:13)
45) ... but most of them do not know (28:57)
46) ... but most of them do not understand it (29: 63)
47) ... but most people do not determines the (30:6)
48) ... And indeed many among the human beings would actually deny the meeting with his Lord (30:8)
49) ... but most people do not know (30:30)
50) ... Most of them are people who associate (Allah) (30:42)
51) ... but most of them do not know (31:25)
52) ... but most of them do not know (34:28)
53) ... but most of them do not know (34:36)
54) ... but most of them do not know (39:29)
55) ... but most of them did not know (39:49)
56) ... but most of them do not know (40:57)
57) ... but most people do not believe (40:59)
58) ... but most people do not give thanks (40:61)
59) ... but most of them turn away (41:4)
60) ... but most of you hate the truth (43:78)
61) ... but most of them do not know (44:39)
62) ... but most people do not know (45:26)
63) ... but most of them do not understand (49:4)
64) ... but most of them do not know (52:47)
65) ... And most of them are people who rebel (57:16)
All matters must be submitted on that are able to handle it.

November 28, 2010

Fiat money ... Oh, how long you can stay ...?

It can not be denied again by anyone, fiat money is money that has no intrinsic value continues to decline in value over time. It's just that the majority of us do not realize just how bad such impairment. 

  
The majority of us be fooled by short-term view of where the value of paper currencies fluctuate as each other, sometimes up and sometimes down. This is true if we use reference is a fellow of paper money. 
  
The rule is a child weighing scales must have a fixed weight. If we want to weigh the cucumbers in the market for example, we can not weigh the scales of cantaloupe with a child - because the weight of both is uncertain. Children weighing scales must be certain and proven. 
  
Similarly, assessing the purchasing power of paper money; amount of money only has value relative to the currencies of U.S. $ for example - but the purchasing power of real or absolute values can not be determined by comparing the amount to U.S. $ - because they do not have an exact value and reliability. 
  
So what can we use to measure the value or purchasing power of paper money that accurate?. Or gold dinar was one of the most accurate answer and has been tested for thousands of years. 
  
Besides using the standard gauge and tested, measuring the value of the currency should also be made in sufficient time range, eg 50-10 years or even more. Why is that?, Because if the timeframe is used only short term - for example in a single year, people can be fooled and wrong decisions. 
  
Note the picture above as an example. Within one year, when measured with scales of gold even if (as a comparison of raw values) - then the volatility of the currency seems only natural. 
  
There is a currency whose value is higher than that of gold yen (up 18%); While the U.S. $ and Sing $ is relatively fixed (respectively 'only' dropped 1% and 5%).Meanwhile, the euro fell 11%, the rupiah fell 16% and the worst pound fell 27%. 
  

To take important decisions related to our long-term investment just as children's education expenses, the cost of building a house, medical expenses and pension funds - we have to use glasses purchasing power of money in the long term. 

  

Consider the graph in addition to illustrating the value of the purchasing power of fiat currencies, when measured by standard scales of gold or the value of the dinar in the time span of ten years. 
  
We can easily see in the chart that only in less than ten years (in 2009 we used the January data only weeks to 3), no-one any fiat currency that can survive to maintain the value of its purchasing power. 
  
U.S. $ which he mighty, within the time the purchasing power of gold bought live 32%, while the euro stayed 42%, 37% lived Yen, Sing $ to live 36%, 28% lived Poundsterling and our beloved currency Rupiah stay 21%! 
  
When the rate of decline in the purchasing power of fiat money the last ten years is like a graph and the figures above, then anyone who can guarantee that the trend of the next 10 years will not run like this, or even worse to see the development of the global financial crisis last year?, Please You use your own assumptions. 
  
So what is the importance of these two graphs (for more detailed graph please click on the graph) on the management / financial planning and investment we all?. For short-term needs - one year or less for example, the use of fiat money can be still quite safe - if financial conditions nationally or globally walk without great turbulence. 
  
In contrast to the management / financial planning and medium to long term investment; Gold Dinar can maintain its purchasing power throughout the ages - is one obvious answer. Allaah knows best.

There's Only One Challenger U.S. Dollar: Gold (dinar) ...

"As a result of global scale recession, no country wants its currency to appreciate.Alternative for the U.S. Dollar in 2009 is not the currency of another country, but the 'old currency' that is gold. Precious Metals may appear as a hedge for investors suspicion of central bank behavior and the fear of inflation ... ". David Hales in his January 5, then in the Financial Times. 

  
This is not the first time I found the author of west objective of the currency. Thinkers on the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (Gata) has long expressed a similar view, Ter-wacanakan its Bretton Woods II by world leaders of G-20 can not be separated from the recognition that the real gold was money that was true. 
  
Unlike us who believe that real money (fair balance) is only gold and silver based on our religious beliefs, David Hales concluded that the replacement of gold is U.S. Dollars based on the current global financial conditions, as, among others, revealed in some of the following realities: 
  
· All the players of the world economy slipping into recession. Real GDP in America and in Europe will reach minus 1.5%, and Japan will be worse and could reach minus 2.5%. 
· Response from European countries (which actually has a strong potential successor currency to U.S. $ namely Euro), much slower than the American response in the form of economic stimulus. So currency can not be expected. 
· China are hit by this crisis, is not expected to intervene the market to raise its exchange rate. First because of their foreign exchange reserves began to decline, both to raise the exchange rate will reduce the competitiveness of its exports are now even this has been disrupted. 
· Japan's currency is still strong while the future will tend to be suppressed by their own government for the same reason that is because of falling exports and declining production capacity. 
· Traffic world trade will go down because of large importing countries experiencing recession. Not only Europe, America and Japan, but also that no less bad is South Korea, Taiwan and China. 
  
Americans still can be proud to have among the strongest currency-denominated other currencies weak. But this only happens during a real challenger - the gold / Dinar - not yet emerged. No wonder why their governments are always hostile to gold, to the extent that their own citizens who realize that they persecuted by his government - set up various organizations to fight it like Gata, FAME (Foundation of Advanced Monetary Education) etc.. 
  
For us Muslims, to us has been rumored about the destruction they are - but whether we are going to replace it? depends on our willingness to begin work for this. 
  
"He was the one who issued the unbelievers among the people of the Scriptures from their villages during the first expulsion time. You do not think that they would come out and they were convinced that their fortresses would defend them from the (punishment) Allah, and Allah brings to them (punishment) from the direction that they are not unexpected. And God threw fear into their hearts, they destroy their houses with their own hands and the hands of those who believe. So take it (the incident) to be a lesson, O men who have a view. "(Surah 59: 2) 
  
So God had destroyed the (economic) they are with their own hands, which is needed now is the emergence of the hands of the believers to replace it. If the hands of the believers who do not also appear immediately, then that would arise could be another crime in a new form. Allaah knows best.

November 27, 2010

Flight to Quality, Flee to Safety ...

A few months ago is a remarkable day for Americans in particular and for other nations in the world that make America as his teacher ... Stand. Suddenly they rejoice as if forgetting all the pain that the financial crisis for months to undermine the whole country.



In this emotional atmosphere, it is not strange when emerging new expectations realistic irrespective of whether or not these expectations. Above expectations (which could be this nonsense), their economic icons of U.S. $ rose sharply yesterday. At the time I write this article U.S. $ Index stood at 86.08. Known only fall comparison of paper currency. The euro stood at 1.2925 (U.S. $ / Euro) and the amount is at number 11, 245. (USD / US $).

When the U.S. $ more powerful compared to other paper currencies, gold prices usually go down - because the gold in the international market was also purchased with U.S. $. But what happened yesterday was not the case. Gold prices rise along with rising U.S. $.
Why did it happen so?. Two prominent field of financial news sources call it almost simultaneously. Dow Jones Newswire call the Flight to Quality, while Reuters called Flee to Safety.

According to Dow Jones,-do investors move their funds to the qualified investment that is gold because they are worried of the condition of the banking system. In the UK, which is one of the world's largest gold market, an indication that the world of banking is still in big trouble is the government's announcement that it will expand the scope of its financial industry rescue.

Meanwhile, according to Reuters, soaring public interest investors to gold-based products such as Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that is fully in the backed-up by gold, not separated from the global economic gloom with the existing financial system.


When the community of investors to think logically and not driven by emotion and euphoria alone - then the gold would be one choice, and the price of gold will rise.
 
Also, when people think of quality investment, gold answer. Similarly, when the investors want to run to a safe investment, gold is also the answer.


 
Quality, Safety and Gold seems to be a word that is identical to one another in the investment world.

November 26, 2010

Looking Up descent Gold In Last 40 Years ...

There are so many people invest only a moment to follow the trend, in the daily news ... obedient grubyug Javanese term. Not only in Indonesia but also worldwide.



Trend moment, much less news in the newspaper very often misleading to readers.Even the world's financial newspaper Financial Times caliber though. Newspapers only write what is considered an up-to-date and interesting for readers at the time, not necessarily the best in the context of our investment needs.

Financial Times, for example, in 2004 wrote an editorial with the title The Death of Gold - so many people are affected, but then two weeks ago (05/1/09) they publish a 180 Degrees opposite the title "There is Only One Alternative To The Dollar "- especially if not gold?.

Imagine in just a span of less than 5 years, the same newspaper can turn around 180 degrees. Yet for the sake of investment, we have a long horizon - ten, twenty and even more than 40 years.

Why is that?. Most of us start work early age of 20 years, will retire mid-50s - this was 30 years old. Expectation of life of people of Indonesia is up to 71 years, meaning the results of our hard work is expected to be enjoyed until about 16 years after retirement. If calculated from the beginning of our work (we start paying pension funds) - the time span between start saving until the final can enjoy up to 46 years!.

For gold, for example we can look at performance in 40 years in the chart above.Opponents of gold investment, typically using a bearish period 1980-2000 (20 years) as its argument. Gold could be many decades that bearish or show a declining trend.

Instead the proponents of gold investments, using the period 2001-2008 as bullish arguments. That only in less than half (8 years), all of the decline of the period has been more bearish than was recovery.

Both are true because they both showed statistical facts, only to predict what will happen in the future we need more than just statistics. We need information on what really happened behind the period of bearish or bullish.

When viewed as one investment product (so the world looked at him now) - gold compete with other investments in the world such as deposits, bonds and especially stocks and derivatives products. When people hunt for stocks, the fund for investing in gold automatically reduced and the price of gold tends to fall. This is what happens during a bearish period from 1980 to 2000 gold.

Conversely when people began to doubt the stock and derivatives products, deposit accounts with paper money, then people look for safer investment alternatives - then gold is the most promising investment security. This is what happens in periods of bullish gold since 2001 until now.

After the investment broke down last year which has not yet subsided, future investors will be more intelligent and realistic in choosing investment products. The hunt for a global stock without intelligent analysis as was the case during 1980-2000, more likely to occur than not likely to happen.




Investor community is now aware that they hunt for this is "pepesan kosong"; bubble that could easily collapse. For example, besides the graph shows this. Dow Jones which rose to 14.74 time in the period of its bullish stock (meaning his bearish gold), was not supported by comparable growth in GDP - bike that period the U.S. GDP grew only 1.65 times only!. It is clear from these data that the bubble (bubble) shares as shown by the Dow - is not supported by the real economy.

So if the world community of investors still believe the investment bubble, then gold could still be going down ... but i believe otherwise, that the public investors will be more intelligent and more careful after this crisis. This means that gold prices will tend to rise as long as we predicted. Allaah knows best.

November 25, 2010

M-Dinar: Implementation of the idea Dr. M ...

Dr. Mahathir Mohammad, or often called Dr. M, is the (former) heads of state in modern times that have been disconnected with the concept of Dinar and its implementation to trade between countries - since he was in power!.

  
This morning in the national daily Republika, he thought once again loaded for a boycott of U.S. $ whose country has become a major sponsor in Israeli attacks on our brothers in Gaza.


  
With what these people could leave the U.S. $?, With what else if not with the Gold Dinar.


  
If the European countries struggling to form their single currency Euro, Muslims do not need too much waste of time because the whole concept Dinar - his blue print (if the computer programming language of his class) has existed since the time of the Prophet Muhammad.


   
Blue-print or Class for hundreds of years this has been implemented by either of the Caliph of the Caliphs of one another, before the Muslims lost the last caliphate in 1924.
  
Payment of trade between countries by using the Dinar-been done in the Islamic world through what is called Al-Suftajah - hundreds of years before the world trade in the west gave birth to the Bill of Exchange.


  
As an end-time religion, Islam solutions can be very modern without losing its Islamic it. So Al-Suftajah in modern times even this can of course use the latest technology with the Internet and mobile communications technology. M-Dinar is one modern form of Al-suftajah.


  
Through M-Dinar parties can transact using the Gold Dinar trade without having to bring his physical Dinar. The owner of the account of his store Dinar in party can be trusted (Trusted Third Party) and automatically reduced or increased depending on the activity of the transaction.

Transactions between the owner of the account can be done via the internet connected computer or mobile phone with GPRS or 3G. To enhance security, every new transaction will be executed after the re-confirm via code or links sent via e-mail account owners.


  
Application technology of M-dinar or MobileDinar already 90% complete, so that people who are interested will be able to try it InsyaAllah already this month. If you access the M-Dinar.Com from your mobile phone these days, the menu that appears just two: graph and the rate, then if M-dinar is already active there will be two more menus ie payments and accounts.


  
If the problem arguably technological applications has been overcome, not the case with legal problems. In Indonesia the money for a medium of exchange legally recognized only rupiah.


  
Despite this reality, hotels, insurance companies, accountant, legal consultant, contractor until corruptor (remember the bribery case of U.S. $ 600,000!) Etc. a lot of which deal with other than Rupiah. Are they breaking the law (except for the corrupt!), Appears not. If the transaction using the foreign currency is considered breaking the law, then law enforcement should be raided Bali and Batam in advance because the two regions S $ U.S. $ and most widely used community.


  
Gold coin was in a certain community in Indonesia has long been used. In West Sumatra known amount of gold for example, many people in Jakarta have started using e-gold, GoldMoney until the e-dinar based overseas.


   
So it should not matter if the M-dinar or Gold dinar-based transactions we were introduced in Indonesia by the Indonesian people themselves. If the later is considered a problem, so we just sell the idea to companies in foreign countries where e-gold, GoldMoney and e-dinar is located. Let the citizens of the world that implements the M-Dinar, nor should we in Indonesia - but the idea is to implement the idea of Dr M to replace U.S. $ with other currencies - in international trade for Muslims around the world. Insha Allah.