December 10, 2010

Fiat Money, in extremists, is Accepted by Nobody. .. Gold is Always Accepted

The title of this article I get from Alan Greenspan's statement 10 years ago in front of the American legislature, then he is the Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve. In a long debate with an intelligent congressmen (Dr. Ron Paul) - finally 'bandar' fiat money (paper money), the world recognizes that extremists could be in the condition of people do not want to accept paper money, otherwise the gold will always be acceptable.
 
Extremists Conditions such as what is meant by Alan Greenspan?, Which he meant is the condition where people start not believe with paper money.
 
This condition also appears to exist in thought 'god' and futurologist American economist John Naisbitt when in his book published last year Mindset he wrote that the last monopoly that will be left of humanity is the monopoly of the national currency (fiat money now.) The human race would leave its domestic money - fiat money has no intrinsic value - and replace it with private money ie real objects that have intrinsic value.
 
Alan Greenspan and John Naisbitt - two people who are masters at their field, certainly did not make his statement arbitrarily. Condition extremists that they reveal never happened in the history of their country, and likely to happen again in modern times.
 
In American history have occurred when the debtor's creditors to pursue running to repay the debt, but ran away because the lender would not accept the money would be paid by the debtor. The incident occurred between the years 1775 - 1780 when their paper money called Continental - no price!. It was to the point that there is a barber shop that uses money as a wallpaper (wall coverings) for the money cost about the same as paper wallpaper.
 

Extremists Conditions expressed by Alan Greenspan mentioned above did not happen today, but the symptoms or the symptoms are already visible. Let you look at price charts Dinar this morning, why prices Dinar (gold price) suddenly jumped sharply early this morning or afternoon American time?.
 
The cause was none other than the Fed's decision to 'print new money' to buy U.S. $ 300 billion of long-terms Treasury Securities in the coming months. Total purchases of securities by the Fed this year will reach U.S. $ 1.25 trillion.
 
Every time the government of a country printing money beyond the needs of real transactions, then the money is in the public automatically goes down in value - This is the theory of Ibn Taymiyyah about 800 years ago are still very valid today.
 
Market who understand the meaning of the actions mentioned above the U.S. Fed, immediately realized that the existing paper money in their hands will continue to decrease rapidly in value. They returned the gold hunt in panic, because they know the only gold was money that never loses it's purchasing power.
 
Genesis last night was just symptoms of the condition of extremists who could have occurred and may not occur. Same with us when we realize there are symptoms of deadly diseases (eg dengue) in our body, which will carefully see a doctor immediately and to take reasonable precautions for the disease symptoms did not really turn into a potentially fatal disease.
 
That would let cool until the disease symptoms that there was really come, but when it could be the treatment was too late. Only to God we ask for protection, Amen.

Hijrah From Risk Transfer to Risk Sharing

These days there is a giant insurance company of the world - which again condemned his own people, no less than the president's famous country-mannered, too angry about it. Even domestic law enforcement agencies were busy looking for the proposition to withdraw behind a bonus of U.S. $ 165 million is already paid to executives and employees. 
  
Bonuses are common for executives or employees who excel, but this time it becomes a big problem because the company is again in desperate decline - which forced the government to bail-out-the company is in the bailout is not half-hearted which reached a total of U.S. $ 180 billion!. 
  
So companies do not survive if not in-state bailout with tax money paid by the people - but the executives and employees for the bonus-; it can be understood if the inhabitants of the land was so infuriated by it. 
  
Amid the anger of the people until the American president, there's one big problem that they actually go unnoticed. The problem that escaped the attention this is the cause of the destruction of the company itself. Why are insurance companies that he said the country's largest, said the company has been run by the most reliable professionals in their field - can be destroyed as destroyed - the destruction?.  
  
Apparently the cause of their destruction is the business model of insurance itself.Because the causes of its destruction is the business model, and the same business model followed by almost all insurance companies (conventional) world - the same destruction that could happen to insurance companies (conventional) anywhere in the world. 
  
Business model of what caused this destruction?, In the practice of risk management is called Risk Transfer. When you manage the risk of an asset, if the risk is too great to face both opportunities (frequency) and level of damage (severity) - the first choice is to avoid such risks. Avoidance of this risk is called risk avoidance. 
  
If it has a high risk of minor damage - although the chances of a large enough, then you can do this by holding its own risks - called risk retention. 
  
When opportunities for small, but if there is the level of damage can be very large - then you can do (only in the system ribawi) transfer risk to another party - called risk transfer. Risk transfer containing gharar (speculative) is that included forbidden in Islam - because its ugliness is so great as the destruction that I mentioned above. 
  
If America were destroyed by the giant insurance company that happens to product gharar Credit Default Swaps (CDS), in Indonesia this potential threat can be all sorts. 
  
Flood risk for example in Jakarta by the average insurance company acceptable to the risk transfer costs (premiums) less than 1 per mill. Though the cost of pure risk of flooding in Jakarta is approximately + / -16%, ie multiplication of potential areas that could be subject to flooding in Jakarta (+ / - 80%) and frequency of occurrence (+/-) 5 years. 
  
Indeed, for several years, a huge risk could still be transferred again to a reinsurance company - but this will not always be so. Reinsurance giants of the world-even this year began experiencing huge losses from this business model is wrong. 
  
Which means what?, When the insurance business model that is pattern of risk transfer that they do not immediately changed, then what happens in the giant American insurance companies mentioned above will be able to be experienced by insurance companies in Indonesia - no matter how large any insurance companythem. 
  
So how do handle this risk by way of Islam?; Please help that is the answer. If a risk can not be avoided (such as the risk of flooding in Jakarta, for example) and also not able to hold his own (such as health risk), then the solution we should be helping each other in the face of risk. In the context of risk management, mutual help spread the risk to a number of participants who collectively bear the risk of risk sharing.
 
God willing in time we will introduce the application of this risk sharing in managing health care costs, deal with floods, earthquakes etc.. Hopefully facilitated by God, Amen.