November 22, 2010

Aslim Taslam, Then…Gold is Antidote To The Crisis…

Materials of my writing this time is to address the Business News Network that discusses the phenomenon of Gold Backwardation in the international gold market. 

  
This is exemplified directly with a very famous saying that Rasulullah Aslim Taslam which means "to embrace Islam was you, surely you will survive (the world and the Hereafter)." (Narrated by Bukhari). 
  
So far, we might have a bad feeling to bring Islam into our friend's apartment nearby, close neighbors, office staff and others. a non-Muslim religion. But the sermon Ustadz Ihsan gives another perspective on this sermon obligations. 
  
Because we believe that Islam is the true religion and we are confident that by this way we will survive in this world and hereafter, are not we too selfish if we want to enjoy it yourself - without inviting people we know (who is not Muslim) to follow it also?. 
Compassion for others is what makes the Prophet Muhammad always invited to Islam by the words Aslim Taslam each meet new people who knew. He who wants affection for all those who knew survivors in the world and the Hereafter. 
  
So what relevance this invitation to Islam by the global crisis is happening right now, especially in the gold market phenomenon called Backwardation?. 
  
The answer thus; 
  
The global financial crisis is well recognized by economists, the head of state nor the market makers as the crisis is very, very serious. Obama and his own economic team that many expected the world, stating that this crisis will get worse before eventually improving. 
  
With what the world financial system will be improved? a lively discussion is to replace fiat money is not worth the money with minimal intrinsic no backups are worth gold.That is why the Bretton Woods II, is mentioned a lot. In one night alone last night I watched two television programs that discuss this issue.
  
The first is his interview with DR. Mahatir Muhammad in one of our national television, and the second is the event at the Business News Network, interviewed John Ing market players - from independent Canadian research-based institutional investment dealer. If you have good bandwidth to enjoy the direct interview. 
  
John Ing reviews the phenomenon that is happening in the world gold market, called the Gold Backwardation; the spot gold price higher than futures prices. Generally, the gold market in contango condition in which futures prices are higher than spot prices.The phenomenon of backwardation is driven by physical demand of gold is high, this is one of the signals that people began to lack confidence in paper money and various other transaction papers and switch to physical transaction. 
  
The phenomenon of backwardation is precisely what makes our price charts on www.geraidinar.com not completely follow the trend of international prices; regular graph we had to do a correction with the physical gold price in Jakarta local market - especially in precious metal prices, PT. Aneka Tambang Tbk. which became our main partners. 
  
At this point you probably can not see the relevance .... 
  
When gold crowded discussed as a solution and start hunting people physically, even by John Ing gold is the antidote or antidote of the crisis that hit the world today - they all really like chasing a mirage. 
  
As I wrote in the article "Gold Enough ...", Gold will be enough and could indeed be a fair money and value is not corrupted by time - but the gold will not be a solution for this crisis. 
  
New Gold will be a solution if the user follows the rules that are very detailed at the only Islamic law. No rules or other law anywhere in this world that govern the use of gold as details of Islamic law. 
  
These detailed rules concerning its use as jewelry (which does not allow Muslim men to use it); ban on hoarding, ban on usury, the drive for gold is spinning and so on. 
  
· Ban Muslim men use gold as jewelry will have an impact on the availability of gold for money, with the only woman to use gold as jewelry alone, my data in previous papers revealed that 51% of the world used gold jewelry. What happens when men come lacquers use this gold as jewelry?. 

· Gold banned because regardless of the availability of stockpiled on earth would not be enough when gold hoarding. The implementation of this ban can not be done by the government like in America in the 1930s that prohibits its citizens to save gold, but by an awareness of the community who fear the day late and dis-incentives reduced hoarding treasures from time to time because of zakat. 

· The prohibition of usury will push gold to productive activities. Is it related to investment, consumption or for religious purposes infaq on to Allah - this is all going to encourage the circulation of money and moving the production sector and the market.

· Gold or treasure that always turn will make enough to meet the needs of the people, not the number that determines but the round was the one who determines the adequacy of this gold. 
  
The efforts of experts and leaders / former world leaders to push gold as the solution of this financial crisis is the effort that direction is correct, but not enough. Missing link is the only existing detailed rules on the Islamic Shari'a. 
  
Without these detailed rules, the use of gold as a standard such as the Bretton Woods for example-will not succeed. 
  
Because we know that their efforts will not succeed without following these Shari'a - then with our love, we called them to follow the Shari'a, because this is the only way - for us all and they were successful or safe world and the hereafter. 
  
To be able to adhere to the rules of Shari'a - we all must become true Muslims; So here's the relevance of all of us to disseminate this invitation to convert to Islam, this invitation is very relevant when the world was hit by the crisis - and we see that the Islamic solution. 
  
So Aslim Taslam, Come in Islam then you will be safe ...

Toughness Led Storm Money ...

Like the ship, money toughness will be tested at least by two things. First is its resilience in the face of time and the second is in the field facing a storm that had passed.

  
In terms of face time, I've written many articles and papers, among others, entitled "Proof of Purchase Power Stability Dinar ...," and the title "Learning from the Rupiah, Dollar and Gold in Four Decade."


  
I turn now to discuss how the toughness of our money in the face of Storm. For this I take as an example the case of extremely relevant today is the financial storm that has engulfed the world.


  
Because this storm originated from the financial crisis in the country Uncle Sam who then rocked various parts of the world, the benchmarks that we use to test the resilience of their money is also money that is U.S. $.


  
We know in fact that the value of U.S. $ which is now also not real, but because his evidence is now more valuable to U.S. $ U.S. $ then we use this to test the strength of two of our money amount and Dinar.


  
Data for this test I got from two sources which is the price of gold in the three months September-November 2008 which I got from www.kitco.com and data exchange rate of U.S. $ to Rupiah in the same period I got from the Pacific Exchange Services. Put simply the result can be seen in the graph above.


  
In  the chart above it is assumed that you have the money Rp 2 million at the beginning of the crisis 3 months ago (09/01/2009); Rp 1 million, you hold in Rupiah and Rp 1 million more you exchange into dinars at the time to get Dinar 0.9784 .Had exchanged into U.S. $ at that time both will get the same U.S. $ is U.S. $ 108.40.


  
Now, three months passed, the waves of the financial world has not ended. However, if the amount of money you one million U.S. dollars exchanged into U.S. $, currently only be obtained U.S. $ 83.25, while the money Dinar Dinar 0.9784 when you switch to the current U.S. $ U.S. $ 110.57.


  
This means that when viewed from the eyes of U.S. $, for three months in the storm, the rupiah lost 23% while the dinar value does not lose value at all even still experiencing capital appreciation of 2%.


  
We do not know when the financial storm in the end and also do not know whether this storm will be big in the future, but back in like the above - then I will vote on a ship that has been proven toughness in the past a very long time, and also robust against the various storms that have traversed in the journey. Allaah knows best.

Managing Money Based on Functions ...


In economic theory, money has three functions as a tool Rates (Medium of Exchange), as Depositary Value (Store of Value) and a unit of computation / Scales (Units of Account). 
  
All three of these functions should be attached to the money that we use, but use paper money it can not meet these three functions at once. 
  
Paper money only function optimally as a Tool Swap or Medium of Exchange. As a Store of Value, the value is eroded by inflation over time. Due to the continually declining value of paper money was then also can not be consistently used as a Unit of Account. 
  
If you have a house you bought 10 years ago worth $ 400 million; without even the renovation are now worth over USD 1 billion - the Rupiah as if you profit 150%; you really lucky? where's the point? house just fixed it-his thing. The advantage of this apparent bias occurs because the unit of account that you use that amount.
  
Money Gold or Silver Dinar / Dirham true throughout history for thousands of years could play three functions of money perfectly. 
  
However, because the regime world government last 85 years using only paper money - and even the last 27 years through the IMF prohibits the use of gold as a reference currency, the Gold Dinar and Silver Dirham we can not yet functioned as money in terms of equipment or Medium of Exchange Rates optimally. 
  
In terms of money, we who live in this era faced a dilemma situation. The money we are officially the Rupiah, Dollar etc.. can effectively be used as a medium of exchange today, but this paper money can not play the function of the Store of Value and Units of Account. Paper money effectively only played 1 of the three functions of money. 
  
On the other hand we also have the dinar and dirham currencies that have been proven effective third play functions; but not legally recognized as a Tool Swap or Medium of Exchange. Practical new dinar and dirham could play 2 of the three functions of money. 
  
So where are we using?. Depending on our needs!. 
  
Composition and Dinar banknotes you depends how much you need as a Tool Swap and how many were needed as a Store of Value. 
  
The principle of simplicity as shown in the chart above, the closer the use of your money - the greater the Medium of Exchange functions play a role. The further use, the greater the function of its Store of Value required. 
  
To purchase this moment, we need the money the paper - it is not advisable to change money this paper by Dinar - if the money will you need in the near future. 
  
Contrary to your long-term needs such as college entrance fee of children, old age health care costs, the cost of the hajj etc. You need money to function effectively as a Store of Value - Dinar was the practical answer. 
  
Actually there is another answer the which is better, your money is not only effective as a Store of Value but Also the Growing Assets - cans if you invest in the real sector as well. In this 'money' cans be your long term teak trees continue to grow, children growing cattle, Chickens and ducks are more and more, the gardens are more verdant etc.. Allaah knows best.

When They Doubt With Money ...

If you are hesitant about this fiat money system is the most like us, maybe it should be OK. But what if that doubt is a member of Congress from a country which claims to be Adi Authorization? - This should be a serious concern for anyone concerned about their money.


Doubt seems obvious once revealed in a debate between Ben Bernanke - U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, and Ron Paul - Republic with 5-minute video clips that we can see directly on YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v = tWk4SSeF1NM .)


Footage appears to be taken from official meetings at the Congress about two weeks ago.


Here is the core of their concerns that I have translated freely from the video clip:

· So far they have released so much money and energy to save the paper money system which is already not working properly.

· They have failed to realize that their financial system really is not workable. U.S. $ was dead. !.
· Root problems that have been initiated since 1971 (when the Bretton Woods Agreement denied) can not be cured only with market intervention.
· They realize that the world has begun to talk about to replace the U.S. $ as a reserve with the New International international reserve currency, but they do not know what form.
· Ron Paul question to Ben Bernanke, whether Golden has begun touted as a replacement reserve currency in the discussions of the World Central Bank - which the Americans involved in it.
· According to Ron Paul too, that the solution of this crisis is to return to the currency of the term he has integrity, not just fiat money.

Ron Paul's statements in particular the statement that the U.S. $ was dead, of course disputed by Ben Bernanke with the argument of U.S. $ is in fact high value now.


If you have enough bandwidth to watch them debate directly, you can conclude themselves who among them is right and telling the truth - and who again lied; from their faces it seems obvious.

Gold Price Prediction Of Citigroup ...

I am again in Plantation Mount Ringgit when the Daily Telegraph - Britain had released the gold price forecast from Citigroup last week so I can not lose when writing this story again warm-warm in the world gold market.



But because the analysis is made quite valid and issued by the party which is also quite competent, so even if I quoted prediction of late.

This prediction is actually begun an internal memorandum to clients of Citigroup, which states that the price of gold will reach U.S. $ 2,000 / troy oz in the next two years, and possibly by the end of 2010.

These predictions are then not refuted, even asserted by Tom Fitzpatrick - Chief Technical Strategist of the bank.

According to Tom, this is not because central banks have flooded the world monetary system with liquidity - the money the paper. Currently, air-trillion of paper money is like the dust flying Dollar - looking for a place to fall. After the fall will be a pile of paper money and inflation shocks are not unprecedented.

According to Tom Similarly, a flood of paper money printed by central banks during this crisis will only lead to two extremes that is if inflation does not peak, then there is a spiral of depression, unrest and even war can arise because of it. Any extreme is happening, he said gold prices will still rise.

Citibank was not alone in the world economy looks bleak, even by Paul Volcker who was appointed president-elect Barack Obama became Chairman of the Advisory Council on Economic Recovery - his views are no less bitter in view the current economic situation.

According to Paul, what the unfolding of this crisis is the damage the financial system that was never experienced in his life. Because Paul has served as the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman from 1979-1987 in the era of President Carter and Ronald Reagan - then this statement is a serious statement.

Disclaimer:

Despite all the writing and analysis on this blog are the product of careful study and from sources that are generally trusted in the business world, capital markets and financial markets, we are not responsible for any loss whatsoever caused by use of analysis and writing on this blog either directly or indirectly.

The responsibility of the reader alone to conduct the necessary studies of the sources of this blog or other sources, before taking decisions relating to investment gold, Dinar and other investments.

Gold Enough For All Humanity, But ...


The creation of gold and silver by God according to Imam Ghazali is for gold and silver is used as a judge or a fair balance to assess the goods in muamalah way


This is in line with the number of the verses of the Koran which commands us to uphold the scales or balance, which means also uphold justice. 

  

If we are commanded to enforce muamalah scales or her fairly, and for gold or silver is needed - then surely Allah is sufficient to make it available on earth. 
  
Based on data from World Gold Council (WGC), until late last year about 170.000 tons of gold available in the entire surface of the Earth (backup in the earth is not counted.) More than half for jewelry (51%), while serving as a reserve in central banks around the world only 18%, almost equal to the amount of gold for investment up to 17%. 



Other data from the Gold Sheet Link shows that for about the last 170 years trend of the availability of gold in the earth's surface increases with population growth of the earth. Even the per capita availability of world gold tends to rise than 0.50 ounces / capita mid-19th century; to about 0.75 ounces / capita of this decade. 

  
These data indicate that gold is enough to be used as a tool muamalah or money was fair to all inhabitants of the earth anytime and anywhere. Only the human greed that makes it as if gold is never enough. 
  
Gold will only be enough to use as money is fair if the conditions of the people abide by the rules of the use of gold as a whole. Where these rules are?. Only Islamic law was the one who has very detailed rules about the use of this golden; Consider the following examples: 
  
1. Men in Islam are prohibited from using gold jewelry; from the chart above shows that gold is used as jewelry is now 51% of all gold that is. Prohibition of men using as a gold jewelry will have reduced the proportion of gold jewelry, and leaves more gold for money. 
2. Prohibition where gold is used for eating and drinking, also will make more gold available as money. 
3. Prohibition accompanied by a very severe threat is a hoard of gold and silver.Because if gold stockpiled, then regardless of the surface of the earth will never be enough. 
4. Prohibition of Riba hardest part is - up until Allah and His messenger to declare war against the perpetrators. The lure of usury would eliminate the gold that is used as a tool needed muamalah a fair society. 
5. The command to treasure always play (Al Hasyr: 7) is the key, if gold is really able to rotate (because it is not discarded and not too in-riba)-then this amount will not be a problem. Little spin will be enough, if not disposed of as well-in usury or she will never be enough.
  
This is why gold post-Ottoman regime like the Bretton Woods failed and will always fail because it only uses gold as a standard will never be enough to satisfy human greed. 
  
Gold is only sufficient if enforced Shari'a that regulate them, and only Islam that has the Shari'a this. So the only true Islam that has a comprehensive solution to address today's chaotic world of finance it. 
  
This work can be enormous and will take a long time - beyond the limit of our age, but this work must begin. Starting from ourselves, with what we can. Allaah knows best.

Deposit amount, Qirad Dinar Or Planting Trees?



Looking at the various plants in the plantation of Mount Ringgit and prosperity enjoyed by his servants; it seems I get a justification of my main thoughts on this site stretcher. 


That the best investment is the real sector that is managed correctly, that 'money' which is actually the real objects whose value is determined by the value of the object itself - its intrinsic value, not values imposed by the force of law. 


Because the plantation Mount Ringgit begin taken over and managed by my college friends since 2001, so I tried to simulate the performance of their investment - compared to Profit Sharing in Islamic Banking Deposit amount (I do not use conventional banks because the interest Usury according to the MUI fatwa I / 2004) and Qirad Dinar.


Assuming the same amount of money USD $ 38.5 million in 2001; invested into the deposit amount; buy Dinar then in qirad right and the third is used to plant a tree, then the result in Rupiah were as follows. 
Money that is placed deposits since 2001 (the assumption of net results of an average of 6% / year), currently has a USD 58 million. 

The money that bought dinar and  in qirad (assuming the net result of 4% / year), currently has a USD 151.32 million 



Money that used to plant trees (assuming its performance following the Mount Ringgit), is currently a USD 1:35 Billion Yeah! 
  
That is, the glass eye Rupiah - Qirad Dinar investment can produce 3 times better than can be given by the Deposit. But far better investment in the real sector which in this example can provide results that almost 9 times better than Qirad Dinar Investment. 
  

Well how about now if we replace the scales with scales of righteousness, not paper money but the dinar - see chart beside. 

  

Currency USD 38.5 million in 2001 is equivalent to 100 dinars; If the money is kept in dollars and deposited, then the money is now a USD 58 million but only the equivalent of 50 dinars!. 


The money that bought dinar to 100 dinar (2001); and in qirad right, so now the money has been a 132 Dinar 


The same money that used to plant trees, so the trees have now become 1.174 dinars!. 
  
So what our investment choices? ... Of course the main choice is the real sectors such as planting this tree. But this is no condition that is if we have all the skills required and also ready to bear the risks that must be faced. 
  
If we are not ready with a variety of expertise required for businesses that will be our field, and we are not ready to bear the risk - the investment in the Dinar (especially in shape Qirad) is the choice. 
  
This is the justification why often I call that the Dinar (especially Qirad Dinar) is investing No. 2, because that No. 1 is the real sector, which is run by Mount Ringgit well as the above. 
  
Allah willing in the future we can improve the performance of our investments by Ringgit Mount emulate the success of the program muzaraah

When the G-20 has a discourse, China has been moving ...

When the meetings of G-20 is running; China is already moving ahead collect gold. In fact, according to The Economic Times that softcopy articles submitted by readers of this site in Brunei, China was getting square off to increase its gold reserves to 7 times that of their gold reserves now. 

  
Their gold reserves are now in the range of 600 tons will be increased to 4.000 tonnes. If this happens then China's gold reserves would be greater than its gold reserves of the IMF, and 3 times more than the gold reserves of all Muslim majority countries combined. 
  
Gold reserves will also be two times larger than the gold reserves of the whole of Asia outside China when combined. See chart beside. 
  
China is very capable of doing this because they have foreign exchange reserves are the largest current U.S. $ 1.9 trillion. 
  
What is its impact on world gold prices? It can be very meaningful. My guess volatility of gold prices began to climb since last week, among others, also driven by this issue. 
  
The increase in demand from China alone will be able to absorb the entire world's gold production in one year!. 
  
So happy are the people who have started to invest Dinar; Your investment is up 40% last year (indicator on dashboard geraidinar.com at the time I write this article) - will find a new rocket fuel for his bounce higher again in the future. And Allaah knows best.
  
Disclaimer: 
  
Despite all the writing and analysis on this blog are the product of careful study and from sources that are generally trusted in the business world, capital markets and financial markets, we are not responsible for any loss whatsoever caused by use of analysis and writing on this blog either directly or indirectly. 
  
The responsibility of the reader alone to conduct the necessary studies of the sources of this blog or other sources, before taking decisions relating to investment gold, Dinar and other investments.