There are so many people invest only a moment to follow the trend, in the daily news ... obedient grubyug Javanese term. Not only in Indonesia but also worldwide.
Trend moment, much less news in the newspaper very often misleading to readers.Even the world's financial newspaper Financial Times caliber though. Newspapers only write what is considered an up-to-date and interesting for readers at the time, not necessarily the best in the context of our investment needs.
Financial Times, for example, in 2004 wrote an editorial with the title The Death of Gold - so many people are affected, but then two weeks ago (05/1/09) they publish a 180 Degrees opposite the title "There is Only One Alternative To The Dollar "- especially if not gold?.
Imagine in just a span of less than 5 years, the same newspaper can turn around 180 degrees. Yet for the sake of investment, we have a long horizon - ten, twenty and even more than 40 years.
Why is that?. Most of us start work early age of 20 years, will retire mid-50s - this was 30 years old. Expectation of life of people of Indonesia is up to 71 years, meaning the results of our hard work is expected to be enjoyed until about 16 years after retirement. If calculated from the beginning of our work (we start paying pension funds) - the time span between start saving until the final can enjoy up to 46 years!.
For gold, for example we can look at performance in 40 years in the chart above.Opponents of gold investment, typically using a bearish period 1980-2000 (20 years) as its argument. Gold could be many decades that bearish or show a declining trend.
Instead the proponents of gold investments, using the period 2001-2008 as bullish arguments. That only in less than half (8 years), all of the decline of the period has been more bearish than was recovery.
Both are true because they both showed statistical facts, only to predict what will happen in the future we need more than just statistics. We need information on what really happened behind the period of bearish or bullish.
When viewed as one investment product (so the world looked at him now) - gold compete with other investments in the world such as deposits, bonds and especially stocks and derivatives products. When people hunt for stocks, the fund for investing in gold automatically reduced and the price of gold tends to fall. This is what happens during a bearish period from 1980 to 2000 gold.
Conversely when people began to doubt the stock and derivatives products, deposit accounts with paper money, then people look for safer investment alternatives - then gold is the most promising investment security. This is what happens in periods of bullish gold since 2001 until now.
After the investment broke down last year which has not yet subsided, future investors will be more intelligent and realistic in choosing investment products. The hunt for a global stock without intelligent analysis as was the case during 1980-2000, more likely to occur than not likely to happen.
Investor community is now aware that they hunt for this is "pepesan kosong"; bubble that could easily collapse. For example, besides the graph shows this. Dow Jones which rose to 14.74 time in the period of its bullish stock (meaning his bearish gold), was not supported by comparable growth in GDP - bike that period the U.S. GDP grew only 1.65 times only!. It is clear from these data that the bubble (bubble) shares as shown by the Dow - is not supported by the real economy.
So if the world community of investors still believe the investment bubble, then gold could still be going down ... but i believe otherwise, that the public investors will be more intelligent and more careful after this crisis. This means that gold prices will tend to rise as long as we predicted. Allaah knows best.
