Rainy Season One

When I was little, the farmers in my village can begin to predict when the rainy season and when to end with a relatively accurate. With rainfall pattern that is easy on this prediction, the farmers can optimize cropping fields.

 

Now the predictions when it began to rain and when the end became too difficult for even professionals, often rain fell in the wrong season. Should have been dry, the rain still fell heavily. Instead ensued - should the rainy season, but rain does not fall down.

 

Many factors cause this to happen, the destruction of nature that disrupt the cycle of changes in water, air pollution to global warming among the scapegoats. What is clear is the damage this season we can not blame to anyone, other than to our own selves (human) inhabitants of this planet as the following verse:

 

"... .. And when they are overwritten something unfortunate (danger) due to errors that have been done by their own hand, suddenly they were in despair. "(Surah 30: 36)

 

"And what calamities that befall you it is caused by the act of your own hands, and God forgive most (from your mistakes)." (Surah 42: 30)

 

The difficulty to predict this season also happened to predictions of commodity prices, stock prices and gold price fluctuations as well. In my article about the Season to Buy Gold Dinar do I describe the seasonal pattern for the world gold price, is based on the basic theory that the prices established by supply and demand mechanism.

 

What is happening in the market is supply and demand mechanism remains a role to form the price, but the factors driving supply and demand driving his now sometimes become too complex. No longer confined to economic factors, but it comes to political issues and security that are both local and global.

 

So even though now until September is supposed to be the dry season, which coincides with spring and summer in the northern hemisphere - are also supposed to coincide with the low gold price on the basis of the theory in my article mentioned above; still not closed the possibility of 'heavy rain' sudden suddenly appeared.

 

'Clouds' that could lead to 'rain' began to form everywhere. 'Clouds' which would could lead to 'rain of the season' on the world gold price - among others is the potential bankruptcy of giant U.S. companies, a recurrence of the current banking crisis does not recover until the failure of therapy a la crisis Obamanomics. All these factors could push the gold price in U.S. $ rose in the wrong season.

 

Since we are in Indonesia to buy gold / silver coins with the money amount, then the 'cloud' that can cause the rupiah fell sharply - at the exchange rate should be higher - among others, that the election process which seems to begin to accumulate criticism and protests. When the protests continued and a 'cloud' giants - the amount would be disrupted.

 

Nothing wrong with season although we are willing umbrella should be 'dry', 'heavy rain' could have appeared suddenly caused by a 'cloud' that global and local nature of the above. Wa Allahu A'lam.

Lipstick & Aspirin Indicators For The World Gold Prices ...

Although I like my job it is to write technical things and serious supported statistical data are reliable etc.., Sometimes bored and tired as well. So this time I wanted to write that only light, but still no logical justification.

 

Economic indicators and good or bad it turns out not to be excavated from the statistical data for the primary needs such as energy and food, but also the need for tertiary goods such as lipstick and aspirin.

 

At the height of the crisis late last year in America, it turns out according to the New York Times there are businesses outstanding performance. Among them is a business whose sales rose lipstick to 40% in November and December of 2008. This is also corroborated by Leonard Lauder is chairman of Estee Lauder, that the economic crisis after the events of WTC 9 / 11 2001 - even lipstick sales soared.

 

Why what is the link between sales of lipstick and the economic crisis?, Apparently in the country where people love to look glamorous is - even in times of crisis-they still want to look fancy!. Yet they continue to thin out the bag, then objects that can be used to perform well which is still covered by their pockets? yes it was lipstick. With these lipsticks that cost from a few dollars, the country's women can still look lit up in a literal sense.

 

Other tertiary needs also jumped sharply is aspirin. Based on data from Wyeth is one of the producers famous headache remedy, aspirin sales in the U.S. increased 8% in the last quarter of 2008. Apparently sales of aspirin is the opposite direction to the country's stock price index. When stock prices fall, sales rise aspirin and vice versa.

 

So how does that relate to the world gold price?. When sales of lipstick soar, people amuse themselves they again suffered from the crisis. If you are no longer console ourselves with the lipstick, aspirin became the answer to suffering dizzy in his head.At that time a lot of people who fled to gold as a safe haven - an escape from their anxiety on other investments. Gold prices tend to rise at that time, see my analysis of other more serious than this slightly joking!.

 

From the data that seem trivial to the above, we actually can learn something of the importance of data. If the data is available, then the big problems can be detected and prevented, otherwise if the data are not available or available but not accurate, then big problems can arise from this data. Wa Allahu A'lam