Stages In Crisis And Its Effect on Gold Prices ...

World liquidity crisis has not seemed to increase, it could be now the world toward a crisis summit. The indicator is the world's major institutions began to blindly sell its valuable assets - including gold reserves. - To try to overcome liquidity.


European Central Bank (ECB), for example, newly discovered by the market if it turns out they have been forced to sell some 7.6 tonnes of gold during last week. According to MarketWatch large institutions such ECB does not sell gold but because destitute - ya need liquidity earlier.


Because of this liquidity destitute situation is widely implicated, then the inevitable world gold prices fell yesterday. Despite this decline in world gold prices is not necessarily in line with the local gold market; physical gold market, especially in Indonesia may not necessarily fall as sharp as the world gold price.


Firstly because gold has not become a significant component of investment for institutional investors, Indonesia, so not much is selling gold because it's not much to have them.


Secondly because it could be a liquidity problem in Indonesia is not as bad as that experienced by other countries - hopefully so, so for investors mostly poor people are not in a position to sell its valuable assets.


So Should we now multiply the composition of the dinar in gold or our investments - while cheap-cheap prices again?. The answer depends.


Illustrations besides maybe can help you plan your investment and protection values.


If the fund if we have the will we need in the near future - less than six months for example - then exchange it into gold / Dinar not necessarily be the right choice. When you need the price of gold / Dinar can be still relatively low in six months.


Conversely if you have funds you will use for long term purposes such as school fees and pilgrimage for example, then secure it in the form of physical assets such as gold or dinar could be your best chance at this time .... While you are still valuable paper money very good now. Allaah knows best.


Disclaimer:


Despite all the writing and analysis on this blog are the product of careful study and from sources that are generally trusted in the business world, capital markets and financial markets, we are not responsible for any loss whatsoever caused by use of analysis and writing on this blog either directly or indirectly.


The responsibility of the reader alone to conduct the necessary studies of the sources of this blog or other sources, before taking decisions relating to investment gold, Dinar and other investments.

Learning from the Rupiah, Dollar and Gold In Four Decades ...

There are times when I was forced to violate my own rule not to write at holiday time, this is because the temptation to write so high, especially for responding to critical questions from readers of this blog.


This time I wanted to responding in general, opinions still think that the U.S. $ is better than gold or Dinar. For such a short time we have experienced in recent weeks, this could happen - but certainly not the case when we compare the long time span.


We began in 1968; current exchange rate of U.S. $ against the rupiah is IDR 296/US $ and the price of gold stood at USD 369/gram. What happens 10 years later ie in 1978?. Exchange rate U.S. $ to Rp 442/US $ and gold to Rp2, 746/gr. This means that over the span of 10 years from 1968 to 1978; Dollar has increased 49% against the rupiah, while the gold at the same time frame increased by 645%.


The advantage of gold is striking against the U.S. $ is going on 10 next next decade.Only once occur to U.S. $ is better than the increase in the amount of gold in the period 1988-1998, even this is only because the anomalies of 1 year ie 1998 (see graph) - not a trend or a trend within the decade.


The advantages are much more striking again if we spread 40 years at a time. U.S. $ exchange rate currently is in the range of USD 11.150, - 'only' increased by 3.663% compared to the dollar 40 years ago. Try to compare with the current gold price, the range of Rp 266.477 per gram - gold has increased by 72.202% on the price of gold in the amount of forty years ago.!


Actually it is not gold that experienced extraordinary price increases, but the dollar amount and Him that can not be relied upon in a long time span. This is why the currency in Islam is the real thing that has real value like gold (dinar) and silver (dirham).


Many more actual lessons to be drawn from the chart above, for example the tendency of a sharp correction to the amount of purchasing power (and dollars) in every decade.


In the decade of the 70s, occurred in 1979 when the rupiah devalued more than 40% from USD $ 442/US $ 623/US $ to Rp. In the decade of the '80s occurred in 1984, when the amount in another 13% devaluation of the USD $ 909/US $ to USD $ 1.026 / U.S. $.


The most severe we know all the decade of the 90s; precisely 1998 when the rupiah devalued about 70% of the value of the previous year, from Rp 2.909 / U.S. $ (2007) to Rp 10.014 / U.S. $ (2008).


For the decade of the 2000s, we can see in this number has decreased the value of approximately 19% compared to last year's dollars - that is from USD $ 9.349 / U.S. $ (2007) to Rp 11.150/US $ (2008). This decade will still be held for 2 years, hopefully this decade is not getting worse.


Actually I wanted to write a longer cycle in anticipation of the next 10 years ..., but because this holiday God willing I wrote some other time. Allaah knows best.

Time to Buy Goats

These days the goat traders began peddling goat crowded at the edges of the road, I noticed the goats are the price was above Rp 1 million, one of the goats.

Why yes rising very fast?. This is the reality of our money purchasing power.

Price goats are actually not changed for 1400 years. At the time of the Prophet Muhammad goat prices in the range of 1 Dinar; the current one dinar (USD 1,215,000 at the time I write this article) still be able to buy a goat with a size medium.

Not so with good bills that amount, U.S. $ or bank notes of any country - no one has proven to survive in the long term.

If the trend of price increases goat (same with dinar prices) remains as the average trend of the last 40 years ie up 23:30% / year; the goat sacrifice is now worth USD 1.2 million, 5 years would be USD 3.4 million and 40 years would be USD 5.22 Billion!Wow do not make sense then?.

Again, this is the reality of our money. Use the basic financial formula FV = PV * (1 + i) ^ t then you will see these figures.

Still does not make sense to buy a goat for Rp 5.22 Billion?; When I was 5 years old goats the price of only Rp 1.600 silver. At that time (if I have to think anyway) certainly did not imagine that 40 years later the price of goat to Rp 1.2 million!, But this is now happening.

Before the price of goat to Rp 22.05 billion; very much that could happen to our fiat money. Therefore, understanding the impact of inflation on the purchasing power of our money in the long span of time is necessary under our control so we do not become victims of inflation.

Our fathers, our brothers who first entered the retirement age a lot of which are now suffering financially - because they become victims of inflation that they never realize - let alone back to his anticipation.

Consider the graph above example. If you have an older brother who started working in the '60s, then retired in the 90s, what happened now?.

Pension money collected from their efforts while working 30 years, the value becomes very meaningful because goat prices have gone up 720 times were compared with the price of goats at the time they start working..

So if we must-do move our pension funds in the goat? Why not? .

But the goat is just the representation of real assets that have value maintained; in addition to the goat would be to other real assets in the form of Gold Dinar, plantations, agriculture, animal husbandry, fishing and lots of other investment options real objects. Productive and God willing no inflation eroded. Allaah knows best.

Ghalabati Al - Dain: Causes of Global Financial Disaster

One of efficacious prayer or exemplified for us to read every morning and evening to protect themselves from Al-Dain Ghalabati or rotate debt.

So far I do not appreciate the meaning of this prayer, but because it is recommended by Rasullullah SAW, so often I just read.

The days of the global financial crisis, it turns out that this prayer should be very relevant to our read-do every day by all elements of this nation - until we really animate.

More than that after we have internalized, it must also be coloring all our actions in carrying out our own lives as well - who became leader - yes run this country.

We know the base of all this crisis is the lifestyle owe, who conducted individual-do and those conducted by the government. We have been mistakenly take an example!.

Economy of this nation, this nation lifestyle modeled on the west especially the U.S. economy really can not at all our examples.

In terms of lifestyle do owe the government for example, this month the U.S. government filed a license to Congress to raise national debt limit. With the new upper limit on America's debt will reach U.S. $ 9.8 trillion. This means that any U.S. citizens from the old to the new born immediately have debts of about U.S. $ 33,000 or approximately USD 396 million, -!.

We are 'lucky' to be citizens; our country supposedly 'only' have a loan of Rp 1.320 trillion. Or, if distributed equally to all citizens old and new-born, each of us gets around Rp 5,280,000 or U.S. $ 440. (For fellow reporters not to quote these numbers, yes, I'm not too sure because of the difficulty of looking for definitive data on Indonesia).

Horrible is not the size of the debt, but with upward trend. Because the U.S. as a teacher has also continued to add debt - the value of their debt 'new' to reach U.S. $ 8.0 trillion three years ago, and Indonesia, at the same time three years ago the 'new' debt we USD 1.282 trillion.

This is the accident; debt bondage over debt that makes the whole world scrambling suffered a financial crisis like the bottomless well - not yet seen its end until now.

In the financial world, there are two types of debt which is called Self-liquidating Debt SLD and I call it the only course the opposite of Non-Self-liquidating or N-Debt-SLD.

SLD is a productive debt that could pay for itself. Examples we owe 100 for production of goods or services that result we can sell 130. From these sales, 10 we used to cost, 20 us for 50% of its debt to the giver. We can produce and providers of debt also obtain the results of the funds. Such debt does not matter a lot because it will encourage productivity.

Conversely N-SLD was not able to pay its own debt. Examples of employees with monthly income of Rp 10 million / to take the new car loans with installments of Rp 5 months million. So every month he would have difficulty because their income installment is not sufficient, to cover his lack of insufficiency of his monthly expenditure by credit card. So the debt is piling up from time to time the greater. This is Al-Dain Ghalabati it ... that we are taught to take cover against it.

State also, they owe not only for productive activities, but more for consumptive activity.In America a very large consumptive activities to finance the Iraq war and the actions do not bring benefits to their own people as their activities in Afghanistan and so on.

In a country like Indonesia, all of our loans are used for state budget shortfall, to 'everyday life of his' country.

So countries like America, Indonesia and all countries in the world today - together with its people - patched routine life of a credit card. When the credit card burden continues to swell - then bankruptcy is the state of those countries.

For while the bankruptcy is not visible because it is different with individuals, countries can print money. It is our children and grandchildren will be paying the credit cards used by these countries to so many generations to come.

Let us read the prayer below for debt relief

Allahumma innii a’udzubika minal hammi wal khazan, wa a’udzubika minal ‘adzji wal kasal, wa a’udzubika minal jubni wal bukhl, wa a’udzubika min ghalabati al-daini wa khohri al rijaal.

"Oh my God meant it to you from a sense of refuge hard and sad, and I seek refuge to You from weakness and laziness, and I seek refuge in you from cowardice and miserliness, and I seek refuge in you from the bondage of debt and the pressures of others."