December 11, 2010

Estimated Price of Gold From The CEO

From about a dozen Chief Executive Officer (CEO) intermediate gold mining companies world recently interviewed by Business Newswire, all agree that world gold prices will reach new record highs later this year.



How exactly does no one can predict accurately, but from their opinions that this record will be in the range of U.S. $ 1,100 / oz s / d U.S. $ 1,500 / oz.

The trend of gold price increase by the end of that year they also did not escape the economic tsunami that caused chaos on a global scale investments and the increasing number of investment institutions who need rescue.

Despite all the CEOs who were respondents in the interview agreed that gold prices will reach a new record by the end of this year, there is also reminiscent of the possibility that this increase will go through a significant decline in prices before the summer or mid-May - mid August this year.

The fall in gold prices in the summer is because gold prices usually go up / down along with the rise and fall of commodity prices, particularly energy. In the summer people require less energy so that global energy prices go down, gold also fell.

Conversely in winter, more people need good energy to heat the room as well as for food. As energy needs rise, the price of fuel also rose and gold prices also followed him.
Because the population of northern-hemisphere is capable of much greater than the population of the southern hemisphere, the season that drives the world price of gold is summer and winter in the northern hemisphere.

With an estimated price of gold at a new record of U.S. $ 1,100 - U.S. $ 1,500 is, then at what number the record price in rupiah dinar this year?. Depending on the rupiah.

Rupiah likely strengthened as foreign exchange agreement between Indonesia and other countries, such as with China through a Bilateral Currency Swap Arrangement (BCSA), which was signed recently. Conversely Rupiah also likely to fall because of the great need of debt repayment this year as I wrote on 17 March 2009.

So if we assume the amount will move in the range of USD $ 11.000 / U.S. $ - USD $ 12.000 / U.S. $; then estimate the CEOs about the gold price in U.S. $ / troy oz can we convert into dinar price in the range of USD 1,831,000 - USD 2,725,000 per Dinarat the end of this year. Allaah knows best.

When Compelled in debt, where?

In our paper some time ago I suggested that we should not rely on debt in overcoming crisis (economic) or build the economic strength of the people. For productive activities, many Islamic solution is more equitable for both parties as Qirad or mudaraba, musharaka and so forth.



But there are times when we are forced to go into debt for things that are urgent and it is not possible to overcome the above manner. An example is when the pain affected families that need large costs, accidents, natural disasters, fires, floods etc.

In conditions of affected like this, everyday people who are able-even may be forced to owe. The question is where do we have to owe when conditions force us to it?.

On the streets, in newspapers and often short message via the 'lenders' offers his services to the lure without collateral, or simply by file security vehicles and the like.Not only by small financial institutions, but such cases are also offered by large foreign banks.

What motive they offer loans to people who actually do not really need this loan?; None other than because they expect to have income from interest on the loans, aka usury.

Such loans are not a solution for the needs of the emergency fund as I have described above. Firstly because they suffocate from the loan interest and second because the loan is based on usury which bring sin to the giver and the recipient.

Because of these problems we go through BMT Daarul Muttaqiin who operate soon God willing, would like to invite people to build the valves rescuer (safety valve) with a motive from the beginning is not looking for profit but simply looking for willing and help. This is not a business field but the field charity as hadith the Prophet Muhammad: "... When someone meets the needs of his brother, Allah will fulfill his needs. If someone frees a Muslim from the difficulty, Allah will free him from the trouble at the end of time ... "(Bukhari Muslim.)

Also another similar hadith: "God helped His servant for the servant is helping his brother."

There is no any worldly rewards are more interesting than the benefits promised by God in these two hadith. Because God rewards far more promising, emergency loans from Daarul Muttaqiin do not charge anything let alone a clear interest cost him usury.

So how we will manage our emergency fund that will collect in this Muttaqiin Daarul for the funds collected are not exhausted because the loans do not repay their loans on or hard billed?.

The first loan will only be given to our Muslim brothers that we believe in his faith and piety. Matters of faith and piety are unseen this is that only God knows, we can only perform a physical assessment and invisible to the eye. 
  
For men (potential) borrowers, prayers in the mosque (mosque office etc.), among others, will be the indicator of his faith and piety. For women (potential) borrowers - are covered in the daily minimum standard. 

The logic that we build is simple: If a person does not fear God - he's certainly not afraid also to not pay the debt. Conversely those who fear Allah, most likely he will also be afraid to not pay the debt. He will be scared by the following hadith:
"It has been brought to the Prophet Muhammad corpse of a man in prayer for her.Prophet Muhammad asked, "Is he owes?". Companions replied: No. So he is praying to his right. Then again confronted with another body, the Prophet-is asked, "Did He Have Debt?", My friend replied, 'Yes'. Messenger said, "Prayer is not it is your friend" (He himself does not want to do his prayers.) Then Abu Qatadah said, "I guarantee the debt, O Messenger of Allah". So the Messenger of Allah, even his prayer to these bodies. "(Narrated by Bukhari).

Hadith mentioned above gives us two lessons at once; the first debt is a very serious problem for a Muslim. He should be able to resolve it yourself or have the support of others to solve them.



The second is the Islamic solution called Kafalah or guarantee. The existence of a guarantee mechanism Kafiil or guarantor is the borrowing and lending among Muslims with one another to be a lot safer.


Mechanisms using a Kafiil Kafalah by this also we will use to secure loans that will be our emergency funds distributed through Daarul Muttaqiin.

A Kafiil because it will be liable to pay debts (potential) borrowers who fail to pay, of course he will also be very careful in giving the guarantee. He must know who this is guaranteed, obedience etc. A Kafiil also must be willing to sacrifice his property when necessary.

In BMT Daarul Muttaqiin operational, the people we admit to being a Kafiil among others, is the owner of the account in Daarul Muttaqiin, owner of M-dinar account or the account owner Qirad. They can be a guarantor for the account of its maximum.When a congregation requires substantial funds beyond the ability of a Kafiil guarantee it, so he could collect insurance from several people Kafiil to guarantee sufficient.

With this assurance mechanisms so our brothers and sisters that the pious, devout but financial difficulties will get a solution to the problem is relatively easy because their friends are always praying in congregation in the Masjid or Mosque office will easily want to be Kafiil him. Perhaps this is one of the contemporary meaning of the verse "... He who fears Allah, He will hold for him a way out" (Sura 65:2) and "... And whosoever fears Allah, Allah will make easy for him in his business." (Sura 65:4).

Instead of people who have a track record of Islam is bad, do not pray regularly, do not want to follow God's command to cover his private parts etc.. not be our target, although the relevant market has great potential worldly.

The next question is where are we going to lend money to our brothers who are obedient we get?. First of these funds will come from donated funds or infaq of us who are we specifically designated for revolving funds in overcoming difficulties our brothers who obey.

Both because BMT Daarul Muttaqiin also had productive activities with aqad Qirad / Mudharabah etc.., Then the emergency fund will also be derived from the allowance for the results we get from these productive activities.

Hopefully, these good intentions facilitated by Allah. Amen.