Narrated by Abu Bakr ibn Abi Maryam that he heard the Messenger of Allah SAW said, "his time will arrive on the human race, when there is nothing useful besides Dinar and Dirham." (Musnad Imam Ahmad bin Hambal).
Dinar trading price in gerai dinar we serve automatically by a special formula and uses three parameters namely the movement of gold prices, physical gold price in Jakarta - especially the price of gold Precious Metals - PT. Aneka Tambang, Tbk.and of course very important is the rupiah against the dollar.
Can not we use pure international gold prices because we sell is physical gold Dinar, Dinar we sell must be really able to be obtained in Jakarta at the price we put on this website (gerai dinar). We also do not use pure precious metal gold price, because their prices seem to adjust only once or maximum twice in one day - while we know that gold prices fluctuate all the time.
Precious Metals Prices (Antam) I can not explain because this is their internal policies, while the rupiah can be discussed in other writings, so in this paper I will only focus on the behavior of gold prices - which again fall sharply since last week by a cause which I call the G-20 Effect.
At constant prices fall as happened last week, the question that always comes mainly from the investors or users relatively new dinar is - how long or how many are dinars price will come down on?.
Of course this is a question that I can not answer because the science of the future is not ours, only God Who is aware of - who knows what will happen, including the price of gold or Dinar.
All we can do is try to understand what has happened, then based on statistics that has happened is - we can make forecasts of what might happen in the future. His name is also forecast, could be true and can also be wrong.
The graph above based on the statistics I present the real dinar price we sell through gerai dinar since August 30, 2007. In the span of one and a half years, we have been through 6 times the full change of seasons, ie twice the fall, winter and twice each once spring and summer.
Currently we are in the early spring, then repeated that statistic last year and my theory about the gold price was affected by season, then the dinar price will fluctuate in a relatively low rate until the end of September.
When you follow the statistics of last year also, ie from the low prices Dinar spring and summer in about 12% below the highest price of its season - it could have in the current period until September the price of dinar down to a range of Rp 1.3 million.
Conversely, too, if we apply the high price of autumn and winter last year was at 49% above the lowest spring and summer - then at the end of this year or early next year along with the winter in the northern hemisphere - God willing Dinar price will be in the range of numbers $ 2 million.
Keep in mind that these are only statistical forecasts and only consider one factor alone that season. Though fluctuations in world gold prices can be influenced by any factors that are either fundamental or just a mere market sentiment. Similarly, with the rupiah, this year we have at least two elections that will very much affect the exchange rate until next year.
By trying to understand the pattern of what happened in the past statistics Dinar price, I highly recommend this pattern of price fluctuations become the arena of speculation.I do not recommend you to buy dinars when the purpose for the speculation.
Dinar still be worthwhile (do not lose purchasing power) when the price is low again.Dinar remains valuable even when other goods (including other investments) to lose its price as hadith which I quoted above. Allah knows best.
