December 23, 2010

Swine Flu and Currency ....

Financial crisis has not ended, the world has been shocked by the potential of the next crisis is a crisis flu. According to World Bank estimates that CNBC aired last night, when the crisis became a global pandemic - the impact of the resulting economic losses could reach U.S. $ 3 trillion or so to cut the GDP of the countries in the world up to 5%.

At the moment the only bird flu outbreak in Southeast Asia alone in 2003, the countries of the region's GDP declined 0.6% on average.
At the beginning of this flu crisis which has affected include:
 
 · Six countries have banned imports of meat from most of any U.S. state.
· Hotels and Airlines suddenly experienced a very sharp decline in sales because people became afraid to travel. The decrease in sales was directly in response also to the decline in their shares in the stock market.
• In Mexico City the local government has closed all schools until May 6, Upcoming; some business activities have also begun to shut down
· So far the only drug companies like Roche and GlaxoSmithKline are each producing Tamiflu and Relenza - two drugs are believed to still be effective against flu - are soaring auto sales and its stock price.

If the crisis continues it will be much wider social and economic activities disrupted, and if the economy disrupted then the currency will also be disrupted. Countries that are considered safe from this flu will be the stronger currency and vice versa countries that are considered unsafe or unable to cope with flu will weaken its currency.
 
For U.S. $ currency while still strong at the beginning of this flu crisis as world economic players still have the perception that the U.S. $ is more able to cope with this crisis than its neighbors, like Mexico whose victims has reached 149 people.
 
But if this crisis could not be solved by the United States, for example by the fall of some of the victims died because of positive flu - the belief the market will collapse along with the casualties. This which will disrupt the U.S. $ currency strength.

Unlike fiat money whose strength depends on the (perception) of a country's economic strength, money or gold dinar strength lies in the purchasing power of the object itself.

So God willing or gold dinar will not be exposed to neutral or negative impact of swine flu broke down this. Wa Allahu A'lam.